Three decades on and signalling renewals remain ‘unaffordable’
It didn’t take long for the unintended consequences of privatisation to strike. In 1994 Railtrack was launched on the philosophy that accelerating renewals would pay off in reduced long-term maintenance costs. But by the end of 1998, ‘Project Destiny’, the result of a study by consultant McKinsey, saw signalling renewals being cut back in favour of extending asset life.
Chief Executive Gerald Corbett told me at the time that Railtrack could no longer make a business case for renewing signalling because a policy of patch and mend life-extension showed a better Net Present Value. Eventually, as Network Rail brought costs back under control, signalling renewals revived. But cost remained the dominant issue, especially on the lightly-used lines.
MOD-SIG
This resulted in the Modular Signalling programme, where Alstom and Siemens were given a free hand to come up with technical solutions with the target of reducing the cost per Signalling Equivalent Unit (SEU) by 25%. A typical SEU is a signal head or point-end.
Both Alstom and Siemens were awarded contracts for pilot schemes: Norwich – Ely and Crewe – Shrewsbury respectively. Subsequently Siemens has applied the same philosophy to the GN-GE and North Wales Coast resignalling schemes. Both suppliers met the cost target.
When Mod-Sig was launched in 2009 the cost per SEU for main line schemes was around £200,000 at current prices. The aim was to cut this to £150,000 for the Mod-Sig pilot schemes. Subsequent applications were expected to come in at around £125,000-130,000/SEU by the end of CP4 (March 2014).
UNAFFORDABLE
While Mod-Sig is no longer seen as a ‘system specification’ to be tendered, features developed through the programme have found their way into what might be termed ‘main line railways’. However, by early 2018, Network Rail was talking about future costs of £500,000/SEU, which would make like-for-like renewal unaffordable. Only the replacement of ‘lights on sticks’ with in-cab signalling – through the introduction of European Train Control System (ETCS) – would bring costs down to acceptable levels.
As Group Managing Director Digital Railway David Waboso told me in March at a farewell meeting on the day he retired, ‘the work we’ve done starts to show that we’ve got to renew two-thirds of our signalling over the next two or three Control Periods and at the current rate of spend it’s unaffordable. You’re talking £15-20 billion. And because it’s like-for-like you don’t get anything extra for that’.
To put some numbers on this claim, in the last 15 years (start-CP3 to end-CP5), Network Rail has renewed around 27% of the national signalling assets. Assuming a 35-year life for an interlocking scheme, maintaining a steady state condition would have seen 43% of signalling being renewed in that time.
As a result, in the next 15 years (CP6-CP8), Network Rail needs to renew 63% of its signalling assets. Small wonder that future signalling renewals demand is referred to as a ‘bow wave’.
WORK BANK
At which point please note that affordability this time round is different to that in 1998. Network Rail has received a generous settlement for Operations, Maintenance and Renewals (OMR) in CP6. It is just that in the case of signalling, the parsimony of the commercially-driven private sector Railtrack is being visited on state-owned Network Rail. According to informed sources, £500,000 per SEU is on the pessimistic side. The basic signalling software and hardware is below £350,000/SEU.
Then you have to add on a range of supporting works such as power supply upgrades, additional cable protection if troughing has not been installed previously, extra stage-works and even signal box demolition. Taken across the full range of signalling schemes, these can add another £60,000/SEU. So £400,000/SEU is probably a more realistic figure. This is still a lot of money when a scheme like the Feltham resignalling in CP6 will involve around 470 SEUs. Table 2 shows Network Rail’s signalling renewals work bank as at mid-2018. Just under 20 schemes are listed as ‘waiting details’. You have to bear in mind that most signalling is renewed when it still has service life remaining, so we are not talking about crumbling edges – at least not yet. For example, the signalling due to be replaced under the Trans-Pennine Route Upgrade has typically 10-15 years’ life remaining. The East Coast main line south of Peterborough is more urgent, with seven to 13 years to go.
ETCS
In theory, resignalling with European Train Control System (ETCS) Level 2 offers you more functionality – cab signalling and Automatic Train Protection (ATP) – but should cost less with the elimination of signals and all their supporting cabling, power supplies and so on. But you still need train detection and interlockings. From Network Rail’s point of view the best news is that the expensive, high-maintenance stuff which replaces the signals and provides ATP is on the train and off the infrastructure budget. So far so good. However, making the case for ETCS is a bit like the dawning of the age of Aquarius. It depends on conjunctions and alignments.
First of all, you need a route where signalling renewal is imminent. Next, the majority of traction on the route has to be ETCS fitted, or at least have passive provision for fitment. Having got these aligned you need a good length of route requiring signal renewal, so that drivers are not switching back and forth between multiple aspect and cab signalling. This would introduce a safety risk.
As David Waboso put it, ‘unlike colour light signalling you can’t resignal as a patchwork quilt with ETCS’. Equally you don’t want to be renewing relatively modern signalling prematurely when the money and resources could be applied more profitably elsewhere.
PEACE AND LOVE
While various potential ETCS resignalling schemes are being evaluated, the first project where peace will guide the planets and love will steer the stars is the East Coast main line between King’s Cross and Peterborough. The signalling needs renewal, the LNER, Thameslink and both open access fleets will be ETCS-fitted and it’s a continuous run. It also fringes with the existing Thameslink ETCS. Add in the King’s Cross remodelling and the Moorgate branch getting new trains and signalling and it’s golden living dreams of visions all round.
However, in our valedictory session, David Waboso emphasised that the ETCS-controlled railway is a long-term strategy, with many potential pitfalls ahead. In addition to the ECML, business cases for seven ETCS schemes have been under development. Network Rail has led on the South Western main line, Great Eastern, Brighton main line and Great Western. Transport for London was responsible for the others. Meanwhile King’s Cross – Peterborough is out to tender, with separate contracts for ETCS, Traffic Management and system integration.
TABLE 2: NETWORK RAIL SIGNALLING WORK BANK 2018
