SWR slump drives fall in passenger journeys

THE NUMBER of passenger journeys using franchised rail operators fell in 2017-18 for the first time in eight years, according to data from the Office of Rail and Road.

Just over 1.7 billion journeys were made over the 12-month period, 1.4% down on the previous year, which is the largest decrease since 1993-94. The largest fall was at South Western Railway, where the number of journeys was down by 7.9% to 212 million, the lowest since 2012-13. Operators seeing journey growth included Chiltern Railways (up 6.4%), likely due to the opening of its new line to Oxford, and ScotRail, where journeys were up by 3.8%.

The London and South East sector saw an overall fall of 2.1% in the number of journeys made. Journeys in the Long Distance and Regional sectors both grew but at a slower rate, with Long Distance journey growth at its lowest level since 2000-01 (after the Hatfield crash).

The falling number of journeys was driven by a fall in use of season tickets of 9.2%, with a partial shift to other ticket types. Market share for season ticket journeys is now 37%, compared to 48% a decade ago.

Growth in passenger kilometres during 2017-18 was at its lowest level since 2000-01; the London and South East sector saw a 1.3% fall. Once again SWR was the main driver of the LSE fall, with a 7.4% drop in passenger kilometres across the year, which ORR attributes to engineering works and industrial action.

Passenger revenue in 2017-18 reached £9.7 billion, with the lowest growth level since 2000-01 at 2.3%. Season ticket revenue fell by 4.6%, the second year in a row for which it has fallen; in contrast, revenue from advance tickets grew by 9%.

The volume of passenger train kilometres decreased for the second consecutive year in 2017-18, falling to 520 million.

STRIKES, ENGINEERING WORK AND PERFORMANCE IMPACT GROWTH

There were many causes for the decline in journeys in 2017-18, including the prevalence of strikes, engineering work (often protracted electrification projects), some terrorist activity and an economy dominated by Brexit and lowish petrol prices for some of the year. The surprise is perhaps that the decline in journey numbers is so small given the amount of engineering work that is going on.

The clear messages are that where performance is good, so is business growth; and that strikes and major engineering do not help. This does not always apply, as on Southeastern, which for the first time ever is now the best performing operator south of the river – gaining from London Bridge – but not growing. Even London Overground growth was sluggish, and in line with a decline in Underground use; it would have been affected by the Gospel Oak to Barking line closure.

Major engineering and rolling stock change has clearly affected Great Western Railway, where the main line trains have a Public Performance Measure as low as 77%. The electrification out to Maidenhead and later Didcot has brought benefits, but I suspect more than a little of Chiltern’s growth is transferred from GWR.

On the other hand, the significant engineering work on the Great Eastern main line has not affected Greater Anglia and TfL Rail’s performance, although it has led to a lot of total closures. The house building east of London is particularly buoyant.

Wales had a good year despite significant engineering in the Cardiff core area (with more to come). Theo Steel

Busy scene at Wimbledon West Junction: No 444035 (right) on the 05.42 Weymouth to Waterloo working passes unit No 455855 on the rear of a service to Woking, as No 700007 appears on the left on a Sutton to St Albans Thameslink service on 2 June 2018.
Ken Brunt